Isophoric News · Monday, November 9, 2026
Showers taper off Monday, a milder Tuesday, and rain returns Thursday
Rain showers today, at 80%, mostly this morning, with a high near 52 and a northwest wind of 16 to 24 mph. Tuesday turns partly sunny and near 57, with gusts to 30 mph, before rain is likely again Thursday at 60%.
Good morning, Oswego. It was a wet night at the airport in Fulton: rain fell at times from 12:35 a.m. to about 2:10 a.m., including one report of heavy rain at 12:45 a.m., and light rain set in again at 5:30 a.m. The temperature stayed between 46 and 49 degrees all night. At 7:20 a.m. Fulton was 46 with light rain, and at 6:54 a.m. Syracuse was 46 with light rain and a west wind of 15 mph.
Alerts: As of 7:52 a.m. Monday, the Weather Service listed no watches, warnings or advisories for Oswego County or for any land area in New York. On the water, the Lake Ontario marine feed listed Small Craft Advisories from NWS Buffalo: for the nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay and from Mexico Bay to the St. Lawrence River, which include the waters off Oswego, until 3 a.m. Tuesday; from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay, until 3 a.m. Tuesday; and from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach, until 7 p.m. today. For the waters east of Sodus Bay, NWS Buffalo expects northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots and waves of 7 to 10 feet, and its advisory says "Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions." The New York feed listed no alerts.
Today: Rain showers, an 80% chance, with less than a tenth of an inch. Cloudy, with a high near 52 and a northwest wind of 16 to 24 mph, according to the Weather Service. My own blend of the forecast models has 50. Buffalo's forecasters expect the best coverage of showers across Central NY and the Tug Hill region this morning, with most areas dry by mid afternoon except Central NY, where a weak band of scattered showers may persist into this evening.
Tonight: Cloudy, with a low around 40 and a west wind of 7 to 16 mph. A 20% chance of rain showers after 1 a.m.
Tuesday: A 30% chance of rain showers before 1 p.m., then partly sunny, with a high near 57. Southwest wind of 8 to 20 mph, gusting as high as 30 mph. My blend has 54. Buffalo's forecasters expect a few showers across the North Country on Tuesday and dry weather for the rest of the area. Tuesday night is mostly cloudy, with a low around 41 and a 20% chance of showers after 7 p.m.
The week ahead: Veterans Day is partly sunny and near 53, with a 30% chance of showers before 1 p.m. Rain is likely Thursday and Thursday night, at 60%, with a high near 50 and a low around 33; Friday and Saturday are both near 47, with chances of rain of 50% and 40%. Buffalo's forecasters say "forecast uncertainty abounds" for the late-week system, with a wide spread in the guidance on its strength and track. Two forecast-model ensembles they cite (the NBM and LREF) give a 30 to 50 percent chance of 2 inches or more of snow across the highest terrain Friday through Saturday, and less than 10 percent for 6 inches or more; they expect the colder turn to be temporary.
Tropics: Tropical Storm Pena is in the central Pacific, near 11.3°N 158.4°W, with 40-knot winds and a pressure of 1002 mb, moving west — no threat to our area.
Shepherd S., weather desk, Isophoric News